Cherry Hill, N.J. (September 28, 2023) – The nSkope Predictive Analytics Report unveiled today showed that families with children under 24 years old living at home recorded 35.0% of all predicted listings through July. The report reviewed nSkope’s January-April 2023 listings predictions and found 301,314 properties already converted to actual listings through the end of July.
The nSkope Predictive Analytics Report reviewed 360 MSAs around the nation. The nSkope platform utilizes proprietary algorithms enhanced by artificial intelligence to analyze over 300 data points that lead to listing predictions. Each prediction includes a 360-degree profile of the home and its residents. nSkope was created by TKInteractive , a software development company with more than 20 years of real estate experience,
“Those with children are driving listing inventory today followed by empty nesters and singles,” said Tom Gamble, co-founder and CEO of TKI. “Real estate has returned to a lifestyle-driven market. Out of all the predictions nSkope made from January to April for properties expected to list, we have already been correct more than 300,000 times with plenty of runway too far exceed that number. And by studying the various profiles, we can see who is driving listing inventory. Those who seemingly want more-or-less space, access to better schools along with job or relationship-driven moves are driving listing inventory.
“While there are surveys and reports that show the rational people have for potential moves, the arrival of predictive analytics lets brokerages, teams and agents know exactly who might be considering a move. This goes far beyond mining social media for clues. Instead, those with effective marketing systems can devote significant time and resources to reaching the right audiences and converting them to clients.”
The below chart shows which nSkope profiles had the highest percentage of the correctly predicted January-April 2023 listings that had already converted to an actual listing by the end of July:
| Top nSkope Profiles | Profile Definition | % Correctly Predicted Listings |
|---|---|---|
| School-aged Family | A household representing a family with children (age 7-17) | 20.9% |
| Family | A household representing a family with at least one child (age 18-24) living at home | 13.9% |
| Empty Nesters | A household with at least one adult (ages 45-64) and no children living in the home | 10.3% |
| Singles | A household that has one adult (age 35-64) | 10.0% |
| Retirees | A household with one or two adults (65-plus) and no children living at home | 8.4% |
| Young Family | A household with children (6-and-under) | 7.9% |
| Couples | Household with two adults (ages 35-and-under) and no children | 6.1% |
| Young Family | A household with children (6-and-under) | 0.2% |
Key findings from the nSkope Predictive Analytics report compiled from a review of 341 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) include:
- Through July, nSkope correctly predicted 301,314 properties that had already come on the market off of January-April 2023 predictions. This projects to more than 657,000 correct 2023 listings.
- Families with at least one child 24-and-under living at home combined to drive 35.0% of all correctly predicted listings. Those with children 7-17 led all profiles with 20.9% of all listings.
- Singles delivered 10.0% of all correctly predicted listings, while empty nesters and retirees added a combined 10.3%.
- Grand Forks, N.D./Minn. saw 13.3% of its 333 predicted listings already convert through July to lead the nation. Carbondale/Marion, Ill. (12.6%/297), Duluth, Minn. (12.5%/1,112), Trenton/Princeton, N.J. (12.3%/831), and Madison, Wisc. (11.9%/3,360) rounded out the top five top performing markets.
- Other national leaders include:
- School-Aged Family:Provo/Orem, Utah (56.8%) already converted predictions
- Family:Burlington, N.C. (23.8%)
- Empty Nesters:Punta Gorda, Fla. (20.1%)
Singles: Utica/Rome, N.Y. (20.8%) - Retirees: Punta Gorda, Fla. (27.1%)
- Young Family: Cape Girardeau, Mo./Ill. (18.8%)
TOP PERFORMING MARKETS
The below chart illustrates the DMAs with the highest percentage of converted listings through July 2023 off of Jan-April 2023 predictions:
| DMA | Jan-April 2023 Listing Predictions | % Jan-April 2023 Listings on Market through July 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Forks, N.D./Minn. | 333 | 13.3% |
| Carbondale/Marion, Ill. | 297 | 12.6% |
| Duluth, Minn./Wis. | 1,112 | 12.5% |
| Trenton/Princeton, N.J. | 831 | 12.3% |
| Madison, Wis. | 3,360 | 11.9% |
| La Crosse/Onalaska, Wis./Minn. | 528 | 11.7% |
| Cheyenne, Wyo. | 482 | 10.5% |
| Shreveport/Bossier City, La. | 1,131 | 10.4% |
| Champaign/Urbana, Ill. | 601 | 10.4% |
| Watertown/Fort Drum, N.Y. | 203 | 10.2% |
SCHOOL-AGED FAMILIES
The below chart illustrates the DMAs with the most converted listings of School-Aged Families through July 2023 off of Jan-April 2023 predictions:
| DMA | Jan-April 2023 Listing Predictions | % Jan-April 2023 Listings on Market through July 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Provo/Orem, Utah | 25,378 | 56.8% |
| El Paso, Texas | 15,120 | 50.0% |
| Visalia, Calif. | 11,207 | 43.7% |
| Ogden/Clearfield, Utah | 13,502 | 43.1% |
| Salt Lake City, Utah | 28,977 | 39.4% |
| Fresno, Calif. | 14,241 | 36.8% |
| Bakersfield, Calif. | 17,275 | 36.1% |
| Yuma, Ariz. | 3,079 | 35.0% |
| Madera, Calif. | 3,856 | 34.2% |
| Houston/The Woodlands/Sugar Land, Texas | 136,799 | 33.7% |
FAMILY
The below chart illustrates the DMAs with the most converted listings of Families through July 2023 off of Jan-April 2023 predictions:
| DMA | Jan-April 2023 Listing Predictions | % Jan-April 2023 Listings on Market through July 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Burlington, N.C. | 1,744 | 23.8% |
| Jacksonville, N.C. | 2,523 | 22.1% |
| New Bern, N.C. | 1,423 | 21.3% |
| Johnson City, Tenn. | 1,255 | 21.3% |
| Columbia, Mo. | 1,989 | 20.7% |
| Clarksville, Tenn./Ky. | 3,581 | 20.4% |
| Chico, Calif. | 1,884 | 20.2% |
| Greenville, N.C. | 1,339 | 19.8% |
| Albany/Lebanon, Ore. | 1,555 | 19.5% |
| Redding, Calif. | 1,518 | 19.5% |
EMPTY NESTERS
The below chart illustrates the DMAs with the most converted listings of Empty Nesters through July 2023 off of Jan-April 2023 predictions:
| DMA | Jan-April 2023 Listing Predictions | % Jan-April 2023 Listings on Market through July 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Punta Gorda, Fla. | 4,371 | 20.1% |
| Homosassa Springs, Fla. | 1,674 | 19.0% |
| Cape Coral/Fort Myers, Fla. | 10,050 | 18.8% |
| Naples/Marco Island, Fla. | 5,821 | 18.7% |
| North Port/Sarasota/Bradenton, Fla. | 12,517 | 18.4% |
| Salisbury, Md./Del. | 3,172 | 18.0% |
| Palm Bay/Melbourne/Titusville, Fla. | 5,880 | 17.1% |
| Myrtle Beach/Conway/North Myrtle Beach, S.C./N.C. | 6,059 | 16.2% |
| Deltona/Daytona Beach/Ormond Beach, Fla. | 7,663 | 15.6% |
| Niles, Mich. | 851 | 15.5% |
SINGLES
The below chart illustrates the DMAs with the most converted listings of Singles through July 2023 off of Jan-April 2023 predictions:
| DMA | Jan-April 2023 Listing Predictions | % Jan-April 2023 Listings on Market through July 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Utica/Rome, N.Y. | 1,126 | 20.8% |
| Pittsburgh, Pa. | 14,751 | 19.4% |
| Binghamton, N.Y. | 996 | 19.3% |
| Santa Cruz/Watsonville, Calif. | 1,234 | 18.5% |
| Buffalo/Cheektowaga, N.Y. | 6,324 | 18.0% |
| Charlottesville, Va. | 1,765 | 16.9% |
| Duluth, Minn./Wis. | 2,021 | 16.5% |
| Oshkosh/Neenah, Wis. | 2,183 | 16.5% |
| Madison, Wis. | 4,739 | 16.1% |
| Champaign/Urbana, Ill. | 924 | 16.0% |
RETIREES
The below chart illustrates the DMAs with the most converted listings of Retirees through July 2023 off of Jan-April 2023 predictions:
| DMA | Jan-April 2023 Listing Predictions | % Jan-April 2023 Listings on Market through July 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Punta Gorda, Fla. | 5,325 | 27.1% |
| Ocala, Fla. | 6,559 | 26.6% |
| Naples/Marco Island, Fla. | 8,872 | 26.0% |
| North Port/Sarasota/Bradenton, Fla. | 15,589 | 24.9% |
| Prescott Valley/Prescott, Ariz. | 3,353 | 24.4% |
| Sebastian/Vero Beach, Fla. | 2,944 | 22.2% |
| Cape Coral/Fort Myers, Fla. | 12,266 | 21.5% |
| Deltona/Daytona Beach/Ormond Beach, Fla. | 8,062 | 21.1% |
| Homosassa Springs, Fla. | 2,206 | 21.0% |
| Myrtle Beach/Conway/North Myrtle Beach, S.C./N.C. | 6,925 | 19.7% |
YOUNG FAMILY
The below chart illustrates the DMAs with the most converted listings of Young Families through July 2023 off of Jan-April 2023 predictions:
| DMA | Jan-April 2023 Listing Predictions | % Jan-April 2023 Listings on Market through July 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Cape Girardeau, Mo./Ill. | 440 | 18.8% |
| Watertown/Fort Drum, N.Y. | 264 | 15.7% |
| Dover, Del. | 809 | 15.1% |
| Eau Claire, Wis. | 658 | 14.8% |
| Syracuse, N.Y. | 3,475 | 14.4% |
| Binghamton, N.Y. | 769 | 14.0% |
| Burlington, N.C. | 896 | 14.0% |
| Jackson, Mich. | 965 | 13.7% |
| Carbondale/Marion, Ill. | 377 | 13.6% |
| Jacksonville, N.C. | 1,333 | 13.4% |
The below charts ranks DMAs by population size showing the most converted listings of through July 2023 off of Jan-April 2023 predictions:
| Markets Under 150,000 Population | % Jan-April 2023 Listings on Market through July 2023 | % 12-Month Prediction Trend |
|---|---|---|
| x | x | |
| Cheyenne, Wyo. | 4.8% | 10.6% |
| New Bern, N.C. | 4.5% | 9.7% |
| Casper, Wyo. | 4.4% | 9.5% |
| Watertown/Fort Drum, N.Y. | 4.2% | 9.1% |
| Valdosta, Ga. | 4.0% | 8.8% |
| La Crosse/Onalaska, Wis./Minn. | 3.2% | 7.0% |
| Cape Girardeau, Mo./IL | 3.1% | 6.8% |
| Hinesville, Ga. | 3.0% | 6.5% |
| California/Lexington Park, Md. | 2.9% | 6.3% |
| Grand Rapids/Kentwood, Mich. | 2.8% | 6.1% |
| Markets 150,000-250,000 Population | % Jan-April 2023 Listings on Market through July 2023 | % 12-Month Prediction Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville, N.C. | 6.2% | 13.4% |
| Pueblo, Colo. | 4.8% | 10.4% |
| Panama City, Fla. | 4.4% | 9.6% |
| Abilene, Texas | 4.1% | 9.0% |
| Midland, Texas | 3.9% | 8.5% |
| Homosassa Springs, Fla. | 3.9% | 8.5% |
| Punta Gorda, Fla. | 3.8% | 8.3% |
| Redding, Calif. | 3.6% | 7.8% |
| Prescott Valley/Prescott, Ariz. | 3.4% | 7.5% |
| Bend, Ore. | 3.4% | 7.5% |
| Markets 250,000-500,000 Population | % Jan-April 2023 Listings on Market through July 2023 | % 12-Month Prediction Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Crestview/Fort Walton Beach/Destin, Fla. | 4.8% | 10.4% |
| Lubbock, Texas | 4.2% | 9.2% |
| Clarksville, Tenn./Ky. | 4.1% | 9.0% |
| Killeen/Temple, Texas | 4.0% | 8.8% |
| Savannah, Ga. | 3.8% | 8.2% |
| Naples/Marco Island, Fla. | 3.7% | 8.0% |
| Waco, Texas | 3.4% | 7.4% |
| Greeley, Colo. | 3.3% | 7.3% |
| Springfield, Mo. | 2.9% | 6.3% |
| Fort Collins, Colo. | 2.8% | 6.1% |
| Markets 500,000-750,000 Population | % Jan-April 2023 Listings on Market through July 2023 | % 12-Month Prediction Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Pensacola/Ferry Pass/Brent, Fla. | 3.7% | 8.0% |
| Palm Bay/Melbourne/Titusville, Fla. | 3.4% | 7.5% |
| Fayetteville, N.C. | 3.4% | 7.5% |
| Deltona/Daytona Beach/Ormond Beach, Fla. | 3.3% | 7.2% |
| Lakeland/Winter Haven, Fla. | 3.3% | 7.2% |
| Chattanooga, Tenn./Ga. | 3.0% | 6.6% |
| Little Rock/North Little Rock/Conway, Ark. | 2.9% | 6.4% |
| Ogden/Clearfield, Utah | 2.9% | 6.4% |
| Augusta/Richmond County, Ga./S.C. | 2.8% | 6.1% |
| Jackson, Miss. | 2.7% | 6.0% |
| Markets 750,000-1 Million Population | % Jan-April 2023 Listings on Market through July 2023 | % 12-Month Prediction Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado Springs, Colo. | 4.6% | 9.9% |
| Cape Coral/Fort Myers, Fla. | 4.2% | 9.1% |
| Charleston/North Charleston, S.C. | 3.4% | 7.5% |
| North Port/Sarasota/Bradenton, Fla. | 3.0% | 6.5% |
| El Paso, Texas | 2.9% | 6.4% |
| Omaha/Council Bluffs, Neb./Iowa | 2.8% | 6.0% |
| Knoxville, Tenn. | 2.7% | 6.0% |
| Columbia, S.C. | 2.7% | 5.8% |
| Dayton/Kettering, Ohio | 2.6% | 5.6% |
| Albuquerque, N.M. | 2.5% | 5.5% |
| Markets 1-2 Million Population | % Jan-April 2023 Listings on Market through July 2023 | % 12-Month Prediction Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Forks, N.D./Minn. | 3.4% | 7.4% |
| Oklahoma City, Okla. | 3.1% | 6.7% |
| Birmingham/Hoover, Ala. | 2.9% | 6.3% |
| Jacksonville, Fla. | 2.9% | 6.3% |
| Memphis, Tenn./Miss./Ark. | 2.8% | 6.2% |
| Tucson, Ariz. | 2.8% | 6.2% |
| Nashville/Davidson//Murfreesboro//Franklin, Tenn. | 2.8% | 6.2% |
| Tulsa, Okla. | 2.8% | 6.1% |
| Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky./Ind. | 2.7% | 5.9% |
| Salt Lake City, Utah | 2.7% | 5.9% |
| Markets 2-4 Million Population | % Jan/April 2023 Listings on Market through July 2023 | % 12-Month Prediction Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Denver/Aurora/Lakewood, Colo. | 3.5% | 7.5% |
| Tampa/St. Petersburg/Clearwater, Fla. | 3.4% | 7.4% |
| Indianapolis/Carmel/Anderson, Ind. | 3.3% | 7.1% |
| San Antonio/New Braunfels, Texas | 3.1% | 6.7% |
| Kansas City, Mo./Kan. | 3.0% | 6.4% |
| Las Vegas/Henderson/Paradise, Nev. | 2.8% | 6.2% |
| Orlando/Kissimmee/Sanford, Fla. | 2.8% | 6.1% |
| Columbus, Ohio | 2.8% | 6.1% |
| Minneapolis/St. Paul/Bloomington, Minn./Wis. | 2.8% | 6.0% |
| St. Louis, Mo./Ill. | 2.7% | 6.0% |
| Markets 4+ Million Population | % Jan-April 2023 Listings on Market through July 2023 | % 12/Month Prediction Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Miami/Fort Lauderdale/Pompano Beach, Fla. | 3.4% | 7.5% |
| Atlanta/Sandy Springs/Alpharetta, Ga. | 2.8% | 6.0% |
| Phoenix/Mesa/Chandler, Ariz. | 2.7% | 6.0% |
| Dallas/Fort Worth/Arlington, Texas | 2.7% | 5.9% |
| Detroit/Warren/Dearborn, Mich. | 2.5% | 5.4% |
| Chicago/Naperville/Elgin, Ill./Ind./Wis. | 2.4% | 5.2% |
| Riverside/San Bernardino/Ontario, Calif. | 2.2% | 4.8% |
| Washington/Arlington/Alexandria, D.C./Va./Md./W.Va. | 2.2% | 4.7% |
| Houston/The Woodlands/Sugar Land, Texas | 2.1% | 4.5% |
| Philadelphia/Camden/Wilmington, Pa./N.J./Del./Md. | 1.9% | 4.2% |
Methodology: More than 69 million households were included in an August 1, 2023 report that evaluated 12.3 million that were predicted to list within 12-months. The predictions were inclusive of Jan-April 2023 data. More than 300 data points were utilized to discover which properties would likely come on the market.
For more information, visit nSkope.com